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The Geometrical Increase Method is a population forecasting technique that assumes the population grows at a constant percentage rate over time. It's particularly useful for short to medium-term projections in rapidly growing populations.
The calculator uses the formula:
Where:
Explanation: The formula projects population growth over 2 decades using a constant geometric growth rate, where the population increases by the growth rate compounded over the time period.
Details: Accurate population forecasting is crucial for urban planning, resource allocation, infrastructure development, and policy making. It helps governments and organizations prepare for future needs in housing, healthcare, education, and transportation.
Tips: Enter the last known population (must be greater than 0) and the average growth rate percentage (can be 0 or positive). The calculator will project the population after 2 decades (20 years) of growth at the specified rate.
Q1: Why use the geometrical increase method?
A: This method is simple to apply and works well for populations experiencing steady, consistent growth patterns over time.
Q2: What time period does this calculator cover?
A: This calculator projects population growth over exactly 2 decades (20 years) using the geometric increase method.
Q3: How is the average growth rate determined?
A: The average growth rate is typically calculated from historical population data using arithmetic mean or geometric mean of past growth rates.
Q4: What are the limitations of this method?
A: The method assumes constant growth rate, which may not account for changing economic conditions, migration patterns, or policy changes that could affect population growth.
Q5: When is this method most appropriate?
A: This method is most suitable for short to medium-term projections (5-20 years) in populations with relatively stable growth patterns.